The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) have forecast that gross domestic product in China will grow by 6.3 percent in 2019 in its latest report, and that the country’s investment sector will see reasonable and stable growth while consumption remains relatively optimistic and exports continue to grow.
The report said the world’s second largest economic powerhouse will further lose growth momentum during the next 12 months due to factors like declining labor supply.
However, the country’s investment sector will see reasonable and stable growth while consumption will remain relatively robust and exports will continue to grow at a slower pace.
More specifically, the total social investment in fixed assets will reach 81.4 trillion yuan (US$11.8 trillion) in 2019, with nominal growth of 5.6 percent and real growth of 0.4 percent, decreasing by 0.9 and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared with a year ago.
CASS expect that overall retail sales of consumer goods will hit 43.3 trillion yuan, up 8.4 percent in nominal terms and 6.0 percent in real terms. That growth rate will drop by 0.7 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points respectively from the previous year.
The consumer price index (CPI) is estimated to hold a moderate upward trend to reach 2.5 percent in 2019, jumping 0.3 percentage points over twelve months prior.
The study predicted that China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will stand at 3.6 percent next year, down by 0.4 percentage points from 2018, which means that the industry sector will endure less pressure from price hikes in 2019.
The per capita net income of rural residents and disposable income of urban residents in real terms will see respective growth of 6.3 percent and 5.4 percent next year, the report noted.